Ban on Petrol?

[LarryH57]

With the UK and now EU banning new Petrol Cars from 2030/2035 in order to 'save the world' logic tells me that right or wrong that the sale of Petrol itself will become less common, and like the time leaded fuel was 'banned' first there was a few garages that stocked leaded fuel, then there were none. Now we have E5 and E10 but E5 pumps are often locked as out of stock.

You can argue all you like over the futility of Net Zero, that diesel will /won't always be needed for heavy vehicles or that reduction of Co2 isn't going alter the climate one bit! But the reality is that politicians have to be seen to be green to get their votes, and Petrol will disappear in the near future, the very near future whether we like it or not.

It must be an age thing; I remember MV shows from 1978-1980s like they were yesterday, Beltring from the early 'noughties' and it wont be long for 10 years to wizz by!

I guess we need to save for a museum to hold the best of our military vehicle history, otherwise what was once 'grandpa's pride and joy will be crushed and on its way to a furnace in China!

The hundredth anniversary of D-Day won't include a host of working Jeeps etc, and instead a host of young people in EVs explaining how evil the British, Canadian and American troops were in making so much noise and smoke, and destruction when they landed!

Pessimistic or what? 

NB - I am told that petrol is produced, as a part of the refinery process for oil, which produces far more than just fuel or plastics, but I somehow doubt the oil companies will be shouting "come and get your free petrol" that they can't dispose of!

 

 

Edited March 2, 2023 by LarryH57

[attleej]

I think that the longer term problem will be that petrol (or anything similar) is so dangerous to store.  Our older vehicles are not too fussy about fuel quality although ethanol can be a problem.  Remember that most of the cost of petrol to us is duty and VAT and there will be all sorts of volatile organic compounds that could be used to run an old petrol engine.  So whilst it might not be too difficult to source, say, 1000 litres of fuel from the chemicals industry, storing it safely would be a different matter.

Propane will be around for a long time. because it has a variety of uses.

A bigger threat to using our older vehicles on the road may be a regulatory one concerning the interface between a self-driving vehicle and one of our simple conventional vehicles.  Put simply, our vehicles will not be able to 'talk' to a future self-driving vehicle.

John

[ruxy]

We adopted the word Petrol abt. 100 years ago , we could have used the words 'motor spirit'  that was pre-dated by 'launch-spirit'  .  Basically it is just stuff that was first used with coal-gas to increase illumination of churches and other large buildings - then along came very primitive carburettors that did not use producer / power  gasses.  What goes into Petrol has changed often over the years , inc. adulteration with industrial alcohol from grain distilleries.    I would suggest suitable spirits will continue to be produced as by-product but not from hydrocracked mineral oil.  Probably the feedstock will be 're-formed' from natural gases ,liquified coal (pumped from underground) is a not so new buzz - then back to the Bergius catalyst process , hydrogenerated coal to make synthetic petrol or Fischer-Tropsh  (processes both used WW2 for high octane aero-spirit) , of course watered down for Land Rovers & Ford Pops etc.   You will be lucky if there is a single dispensing pump to the general public in every county - that's in 20 years future.  DERV  may be similar formed - but you would probably be forced to fumigate it with propane.  It's all a subject 'they'  (politicians) don't wish to be raised.

[LarryH57]

All very interesting Ruxy, but my fear is that with no more petrol cars, the BP EV refuelling stations will look at us with the same expression, as I'd get at the Doctors Surgery, if I asked for a jar of leeches ! Why would any fuel supplier cater to a miniature market?

The vintage and veteran cars still on the road, are said to be worth £3 Billion to the economy but as time goes on, there won't be the skills to maintain combustion engines or the firms still in business to support it. When you look at some of the miraculous restorations, almost all have been carried out by the older generation!  

[ruxy]

Supply to a minature market ,  I don't think petrol will be sold at EV charging points when the hybrids are gone.  It will not be like the pool arrangements to give a fair coverage - some may have to travel quite a distance.  It's all relative to the  £  in your pocket.  The Blower Bentley man will still be around and he will fill his tank the same as always.  The lower classes of petrol-head will be thanking  the BB men for not dropping their interest.

[Citroman]

At the volvo club they talked about synthetic petrol. It was already in test production. They said in future it could be made at home in an installation not bigger than a fridge.???

[david1212]

On 3/2/2023 at 6:49 AM, LarryH57 said:

With the UK and now EU banning new Petrol Cars from 2030/2035 in order to 'save the world' logic tells me that right or wrong that the sale of Petrol itself will become less common, and like the time leaded fuel was 'banned' first there was a few garages that stocked leaded fuel, then there were none. Now we have E5 and E10 but E5 pumps are often locked as out of stock.

You can argue all you like over the futility of Net Zero, that diesel will /won't always be needed for heavy vehicles or that reduction of Co2 isn't going alter the climate one bit! But the reality is that politicians have to be seen to be green to get their votes, and Petrol will disappear in the near future, the very near future whether we like it or not.

It must be an age thing; I remember MV shows from 1978-1980s like they were yesterday, Beltring from the early 'noughties' and it wont be long for 10 years to wizz by!

I guess we need to save for a museum to hold the best of our military vehicle history, otherwise what was once 'grandpa's pride and joy will be crushed and on its way to a furnace in China!

The hundredth anniversary of D-Day won't include a host of working Jeeps etc, and instead a host of young people in EVs explaining how evil the British, Canadian and American troops were in making so much noise and smoke, and destruction when they landed!

Pessimistic or what? 

NB - I am told that petrol is produced, as a part of the refinery process for oil, which produces far more than just fuel or plastics, but I somehow doubt the oil companies will be shouting "come and get your free petrol" that they can't dispose of!

 

 

I wonder if oil can be refined for diesel and plastics without producing petrol? If not while I am 100% sure the oil companies will not be shouting "come and get your free petrol" how will it be used? Aviation and/or shipping fuel?

Safe storage is a problem plus we know it deteriorates in storage. Diesel is safer to store plus I see there will always be a limited commercial market for back up generators and maybe vehicles. For military I can not see a green alternative to diesel. If hypothetically there were electric vehicles there would have to be field charging stations and if not diesel how would they be powered? Hence no benefit against putting diesel directly in the vehicle.

If not 2044 by say 2050 I can see all petrol vehicles being reduced to a static exhibit.

[Pzkpfw-e]

Crude can be refined to produce different amounts of products, petrol was originally a pretty much unusable fraction, paraffin was what was sought.

Plastics tend to be produced from gaseous precursors, rather than from oil per se. 

 

[ruxy]

12 hours ago, Pzkpfw-e said:

Crude can be refined to produce different amounts of products, petrol was originally a pretty much unusable fraction, paraffin was what was sought.

Plastics tend to be produced from gaseous precursors, rather than from oil per se. 

 

 

That's correct  -  Shell / Shell Transport & Trading , originally made their £  (before the days of motor vehicles)  shipping paraffin / kerosene through the Suez Canal from Baku to the far east - lamp oil was in great demand + cooking with.

Several years ago - I read that in Indonesia  - natural gas was being 'reformed' into diesel & this was shipped for use in the Gulf States  !

If you are conventional cracking for light-ends , there is only a small marjin you can fiddle  - thinners/petrol/DERV / burning oils

[Mk3iain]

An interesting read about James "Paraffin" Young.

 

James 'Paraffin' Young - Historic UK (historic-uk.com)

[ruxy]

In the 1930's  the Walker empire / Distillers Co. were involved with alcohol that were blended  (DISCOL)  later  Cleveland Discol.  At the same time  Benzol  (National Benzole - until BP ceased it in 1990's) , the smell at pumps was always said to be the benzol , then it was claimed to be cancer causing.   100% almost benzol was used as car fuel , then reduced  IIRC even at 50/50 it was anti-knock , so did not need TE lead added.   So - where did the benzole come from  ?   -  coke production ,  this was the prime product from coal needed for blast furnaces.  Coking plants had by-product plants , aspirin, paint colours , tar plants  for road surfacing  and benzol plants - the benzol was rail tankered away - where to  ?  The very best coking coal (Busty top seam / Ballarat produced coal specially to manufacture electroded for aluminium smelting.  Other synthetic material for plastics etc.    So - I just consulted a book - the coke oven / distil plant  manufacturers seemed to have German origins  -  Henry Simon  (Simon Carves)  built the first ovens & plants in the UK  , using the OTTO  waste heat by-products ovens in UK.    OTTO Simons - hence the Ottovale Cokeworks near Blaydon.  (Doktor Carlos Otto).   I can think of a dozen coke works in Co. Durham  ( some operational as late as  1990's  , from 1880's) , abt. 4 of which I had actually been - but the mass of pipework you could never understand.   So - where did all this Benzol go - I can only think it was blended with refinery cracked oil based petrol + grain alcohol for pool petrol during WW2 and long afterwards.   The 10 Octane   aviation spirit was made during WW2 at ICI Billingham & Shell/ICI operated plant near Heysham.   Another 100 Octane plant was to be built near Liverpool , however sufficient was being shipped over north Atlantic that the plant was packed off to Curacao.

It does seem that synthetic 'safe' petrol is in fact being made now by a different process.  They can meet the £ cost we are now paying at the pumps.

 

[ruxy]

HCVA  -  is the one to watch  ,  apparently the petrol we need is cheaper and easier to manufacture that the stuff for 'race-days'.

https://www.hcva.co.uk/247/hcva-news/fuelling-the-future-motive-power-and-connectivity

[7VHU]

An interesting parallel with coal and heritage railways, technically easier and safer to store coal but believe the issue will be with a diminishing supply chain. Back to the local chemist for 2 gallon tin(s).

[ruxy]

41 minutes ago, 7VHU said:

An interesting parallel with coal and heritage railways, technically easier and safer to store coal but believe the issue will be with a diminishing supply chain. Back to the local chemist for 2 gallon tin(s).

Actually I gleaned much info. from a book published abt.  it concerned the LNER  and there was much info. about Bankfoot Works @ Crook .  The author was a Chemist and big fan of the SD&LU  (as I was it ran and still am because my early years  to 21 , I lived alongside).  The author lived at both  Crook and Barnard Castle - he does not actually state but I presume  he worked at both Bankside and Glaxo.  I have another book that is more concerned about WW2  , and reveals much new to me , I suppose much was secret at the time & secret or forgotten since.  I have been to the top of the crackers at Seal Sands , was given a good book about Carless Capel & Leonard when I was once at their cracker at Cargo Fleet.  Spent lots of time at ICI Wilton & Billingham inc. Aromatics and what was called the Oil Works - unfortunately I could not quiz too much & these places are a nightmare.

[ruxy]

Two pages of small print from 99 years ago ,  it was anticipated that car fuel would be kerosene , however I only knew that with petrol start/kero run tractors.

Oils for Motor-Cars - NATURE

Nature Journal

https://www.nature.com › articles

 

 

 

Benzol is consequently more like the ideal homo- geneous fuel than petrol is, and this, together with the necessity of supplementing the supply of petrol by.

[ruxy]

BREXIT  -  will make no difference.  We will always  just follow the mainland on this subject  IMHO.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65105129

[matchlesswdg3]

I would not worry too much; when our generation pops its clogs, there will be very few people left who care a jot about internal combustion vehicles and the bulk of those Jeeps and Dodges, etc will be so much scrap.  Enjoy it while you can!

[terryb]

if we are being cattle driven into electric vehicles with the dangling carrot of free road tax, and 'my electric car is sooo cheap to run', what happens when the staggering amount we currently pay to the government in fuel duty and vat stops?

[wally dugan]

they will find other ways to recoup the loss 

[Pete Ashby]

On 9/16/2023 at 5:17 PM, wally dugan said:

they will find other ways to recoup the loss 

The electric charge tariffs will be spareated and charged at a higher rate via those helpful lovely smart meters in so many houses and then you'll be charged additionally  by the mile for road tax collected on camera but more probably from the vehicles electronics direct to satellite. 

The future is not bright and all that glitters most certainly is not gold 

Pete

 

Edited September 18, 2023 by Pete Ashby

[andym]

On 9/16/2023 at 4:34 PM, matchlesswdg3 said:

I would not worry too much; when our generation pops its clogs, there will be very few people left who care a jot about internal combustion vehicles and the bulk of those Jeeps and Dodges, etc will be so much scrap.  Enjoy it while you can!

And how many people will there be with a driving licence for them?  You'll either have a different licence for self-driving cars or no licence at all.

Andy

[ruxy]

One point I believe I had not read earlier  ,  that the BAN does not include petrol & diesel HYBRID  cars  ?   This would mean that reasonable access to fuel pumps will be longer - at least another 10 years.  After the PM's diktat this week it seems to me this is because he and others are aware the all electric infrastruture will not be present in time  (if ever)  - political dilution.  Pressure on £ for building / improving roads  - no , the working class is to be forced off the roads. The all-electric battery cars I'm aware of - all seem to be leased by the younger in good jobs or those on good pensions. The losers are to be the middling with mortgages and young family or with kids at university.

[utt61]

I was sure I had read that the ban DID include hybrids, and I remember wondering why anyone would buy a hybrid in this case. Perhaps either I have mis-remembered or the policy has changed.

[matchlesswdg3]

Utt61 "I was sure I had read that the ban DID include hybrids, and I remember wondering why anyone would buy a hybrid in this case. Perhaps either I have mis-remembered or the policy has changed."  As Ruxy comments, Sunak's postponement of the ban on new fossil-fuelled cars is essentially required because there is no way the country would be ready for that many electric cars.  The investment in charging infrastructure s non-existent and there is no credible energy plan that will allow loss of hydrocarbon fuels to be offset by electricity generation.  So he is just kicking the can down the road because really they have not a clue - and neither does any other political party!  On a more practical note, I am on my second Toyota-system hybrid auto and they are just brilliant -  a very sensible use of inboard electricity generation, a lot of technology drawn from F1........we currently run a 2 tonne 3.5L hybrid car that does 50 mpg on the motorway and 70 mpg in town!  So there's certainly room for sensible adoption of new technologies.  Alas, we are driven by politics and politicians it seems.

[david1212]

On 9/22/2023 at 7:03 PM, matchlesswdg3 said:

.... As Ruxy comments, Sunak's postponement of the ban on new fossil-fuelled cars is essentially required because there is no way the country would be ready for that many electric cars.  The investment in charging infrastructure s non-existent and there is no credible energy plan that will allow loss of hydrocarbon fuels to be offset by electricity generation.  So he is just kicking the can down the road because really they have not a clue - and neither does any other political party!

On a more practical note, I am on my second Toyota-system hybrid auto and they are just brilliant -  a very sensible use of inboard electricity generation, a lot of technology drawn from F1........we currently run a 2 tonne 3.5L hybrid car that does 50 mpg on the motorway and 70 mpg in town!  So there's certainly room for sensible adoption of new technologies.  Alas, we are driven by politics and politicians it seems.

If major investment on infrastructure had been started when the 2030 ban was announced it may have been achievable. Another factor is there is not even a plan never mind implementation to replace the income to the government / treasury from diesel and petrol duty. VAT at public EV chargers is 20% while unless it can be separated from all other use 5% from home / private charging.

The Toyota technology seems good.

Edited September 24, 2023 by david1212