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Has the military vehicle price bubble burst ?


w896andy

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It's all irrelevant anyway.

 

There won't be a vehicle hobby in twenty years time. Enjoy it while you can as they're going to end up as static exhibits.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/25/new-diesel-petrol-cars-banned-uk-roads-2040-government-unveils/

 

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Utter press £ull**** , politicians gob$hite hoping that university research can come up with the presently unknown technology.

 

At the end of the day - it comes down to strategic materials , unless a new to be invented battery can be knocked up out of bauxite.

 

Panic - Tesla is now arguably well in front , having a few natural advantages wind and solar power + a desert would be handy.

 

https://www.tesla.com/en_GB/gigafactory

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In our current era of screaming headlines such 'Everything on the road is to be banned by the Government to stop global warming' or 'We are all going to die' - I think it's time divide the subject in to parts.

 

Firstly, pollution; it is true that big cities suffer from pollution from Co2 and particles, especially at rush hour so it makes sense to try to reduce this, either with more trains,buses and electric vehicles. I still see cars with one occupant driving in to Central London daily. There is also the threat that older vehicles will face increased fees for entering certain areas as more towns adopt the London LEZ process. In most cases would not seriously affect our hobby if we don't use our MV for commuting or an exemption remains for 40 plus year old vehicles. Interestingly one J Clarkson suggested that when the bus drivers in London wereon strike, pollution went down! Still that might have been a few years back. Apart from newer buses I haven’t seen any electric heavy plant, skip lorries or juggernauts, or any used by white van man trying to earn a living, but I suppose someone is working on the idea. The cynic in me thinks that charging vehicles that don't meet Euro 6 or whatever is a bit of a money spinner and that once we all become electric or hydrogen powered we will get 'taxed' for some other reason, like parking! IMHO pollution is a local issue and should never be used as a reason to stop anyone driving in the countryside.

 

Climate Change; Not to be confused with what should be described as 'man made climate change'. Normal Climate Change has of course been happening since the beginning of time, before humans,Greenpeace or Al Gore. The Museum of London holds records showing how the temperature has changed over the last 500,000 years or more and it seems there is a spike every 100,000 years and luckily we are on the upward slope rather than heading for an ice age. However much I drive my MV I'm not going to change anything. It’s the Sun (in the sky) that's to blame and even the IPCC doesn'tdeny this!

 

Man-Made Climate Change; An interesting concept. It must be true as thousands of people who are paid totell us such things are true, are all telling us that it is true and so nowmillions of us know it is true; very much like a religion of sorts. If someone disagrees they will be considered as a heretic and may be subject to online abuse or death threats over their differing opinion. IMHO it should be called Person Climate Change as the ladies are possibly as much to blame as men!

 

Global Warming; Another interesting concept which is either natural or all man-made. Luckily I live in England so I have not noticed a significant change in the weather though come to think of it the seasons are now drier / wetter / warmer / colder than I remember them as a child.

 

Co2; This is a disgusting pollutant and should be banned from everything and removed from the periodic table in disgrace!

Edited by LarryH57
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the problem will be that getting diesel and petrol will become so hard in 10 years we wont be able to run them much at all...

 

battery tech is good enough these days for cars to have 400 mile range and relatively fast charging.

 

Lithium air batteries promise 4 times the capacity for a given size and weight so I suspect this will be the next push...but who knows...its all behind closed doors at the moment.

 

Truth is we will find a way as there are well known techniques, its just making it all work together. A car with 400 kwh battery packs will travel close to 1600-2000 miles on a single charge...if you add to that a solar panel on the roof of the car which will give say 1 kwh per daylight hour of charge and you will be unlikely to need a charge for a very long time, assuming you do the national average of 800 miles per month...if ever at all...depending upon your usage and if you have a 400 kwh battery pack at home charged purely by your 4 kw solar panels then you will be able to charge the pack in 12-16 days..and have perpetual free travel...why would you want petrol or diesel...

 

in 10 years petrol and diesel cars will be dead...no one will be designing a petrol or diesel car in 5 years and in 10 they will stop making them as people stop buying them...diesel and petrol will then quickly disappear at the forecourts...all petrol forecourts will become car parks for electric charging vehicles and shops...and once we have in road charging the world will be completely free of the ICE....

 

our hobby is doomed...we will need a licence to operate an air polluting machine...the future is very interesting

 

I have two electric cars, I have just got rid of my first electric car. they are brilliant.

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To tie this back to the original thread, some people currently re-engine old MVs, so whats to say we won't be doing the same in future with electric or hybrid power plants instead of infernal combustion ones? What may they be worth? With larger MVs (which are typically prime candidates for re-engining), a modern engine doesn't seem to affect the price too much as they (in some cases) become more usable and driveable. Originality will always bump up the value a bit, but usability also adds value.

 

Petrol and diesel will always be produced as long as crude oil is being refined. Crude oil supplies base stock for many industries and manufacturers and petrol and diesel are usable by-products. Whether we can buy and use it is another thing!

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There are also trends in the MV market, which push prices up. In the build up to 60th or 65th D day anniversary (I forget which), the prices of WW2 vehicles seemed to jump. More recent trends have been Ferrets, and Land Rover Wolfs (with resultant price rises). British post-war stuff doesn't seem to have much of a following, nor value (I accept that there are exceptions) when compared with similar vehicles from elsewhere . I use Beford RLs with US M35s as an example.

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The original Disiel engine ran on peanut oil, the original Otto engine on coal dust. As long as there is an intrest in the vehicles there will be a market. After all it's a finite supply they 'ain't building any more.

Yes if someone wants it there's a market, and as for old tech and new tech, just take it as it comes and adapt. I love driving my old smoke belching trucks and I equally love working on the latest prototypes of massively powerful tiny light weight electric traction motors. my original soap box moment was about the lack of skills in the up coming generation, and hence the threat to skills for our hobby- our industry- our economy- etc, its all linked.

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I can’t believe that some of you are taking this seriously, really a Politian with a track record such as this individual who having destroyed education due to wanting to make all kids academics is now going to get you the public to buy into the next fairy-tale and scrap at your own cost 25 million cars and 10 million lorries to be replaced by a much more expensive technology that isn’t even anywhere near capable of replacing carbon fuels. Next thing is the Government will be telling us that Diesel Engined vehicles are good, clean and ecologically friendly……. oh yes they did that about 10 years ago and yes we did believe them, I think I need to go and lie down…:nut::nut::nut:

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They thought Steam was a finished source of power once, now you can spend a quarter of a million on an old one, plus there seems to be plenty of people to run and maintain them.........the old skills are getting passed down.

It wouldn't be so easy to build a new Flying Scotsman or a Ploughing engine but it still could be done at a cost.

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Electric heating elements in boiler, fed from 25KV overhead line (transformer in firebox space).

 

Rotating cassettes of josticks within smokebox to create synthetic smoke.

 

Piece of cake.

 

Meanwhile, not much point in stocking up with too many GMC oil filters at W&P I guess........

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They built Tornado a few years ago and are building another the Prince of Wales. There is talk of a new build Nigel Gresley.

Exactly don't take it too seriously, chill and go with the flow and adapt where you need to. I stand by my bit on education though, if I put an add up for a CNC programmer/machinist, I might get 1 English guy, 5 Polish and the Polish will be more experienced, if I put up an add for a code programmer I will get a dozen English guys and 1 Polish. speaks for itself.

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They built Tornado a few years ago and are building another the Prince of Wales. There is talk of a new build Nigel Gresley.

 

You are right but not just the Prince of Wales (bigger than both Scotsman and Tornado) but also about 8 others currently being built from new and some nearly finished including three large GWR engines, a large LMS engine and a couple of tank engines all standard gauge plus many more in the planning stage and some narrow gauge stuff including a L&B tank. You can also get good Welsh Steam coal in any quantity you want (we run all our engines on the WSR with it) something else which the government said was never going to be seen again when they closed all the mines. As per a previous post the railway preservation movement is a hobby attracting many young people, expanding greatly and in good health, not declining as ours is, can you imagine somebody building a brand new Panther tank totally from scratch including making all the casting moulds and engine block/components from nothing !!

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Steam engines defy phased obsolescents and refuse to fade away, despite the contrivance of politicians. Petrol and diesel powered vehicles will be with us for a long while and have taken there place in history, and will sustain the future. Therefore it follows that as long as men and women draws breath they will survive. It also means they will continue to infuriate us;)

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Don't forget that if the Government does actually ban petrol & diesel cars, some of you own tracked vehicles so they can't ban those if you only 'play' with them off-road, though getting them to WPR on an electric powered low loaded might be difficult, as at this time I know of no one designing such a system for big HGVs!

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Massive lectra haul dump trucks along with Terex and others, Oshkosh are all into electric power but they all have their own on board generating plants. Some very large mines have an overhead power supply that the trapeze can hook up to. We may well live to see buried electric rail in the road on limited routes. I can remember when Newcastle Corperation did away with the Trolly buses and introduced the latest thing in City Transport (Leyland Atlantians) with a big fanfare. Ports like Singapore are well along the route of autonimous driverless vehicles for moving containers. A rope operated electric front shovel is still the most efficient machine for loading dump trucks size for size compaired to a diesel hydraulic excavator in the large slow moving face senareo.

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I was talking to a friend at W&P, a friend of his is driving the new electric buses in London, when they break down or lose power an electronics expert in a recovery vehicle comes out and fixes it or tows it in. I guess flat batteries strands a number of them and either fixing it or towing to back for a re-charge must take hours. He then mentioned that in the same area 100 years ago the trolley buses were also electric, they only used to go wrong when the electric gantry jumped off the overhead wire. The driver carried a wooden pole with a hook on to flip it back on and the trolley bus was working again within a couple of seconds, that’s progress for you !!!!!!

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A Conductress Ducks for short in Newcastle and if they had to change over or the catynery came off the line, they were out the back lightening quick with their pole and away you went again.

Edited by john1950
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With this Jeep having an estimate of £23,000 - £28,000 (+buyer’s premium of 15% including VAT @ 20%) I don't know if the bubble has burst because it sold for £27,000 last year.

 

http://www.silverstoneauctions.com/1942-ford-gpw-willys-jeep-9955

 

If this Jeep* is an example of the current market, the bubble hasn't burst because it sold for £33,750 (+buyer’s premium of 15% including VAT @ 20%)

 

*All the owner has done to the Jeep in the year is balance the propshaft, fit a new fuel gauge, and replace one damper. Also fitted a dashboard mounted rifle holder and a realistic replica rifle.

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Sounds like someone who went bid happy. I worked for someone who paid £100 for a brocken wooden chair, because he wanted it! Others saw this and just ran the bids up for fun. The chair was on display for about a week , then got thrown out.

 

Mind you I also know someone who stopped bidding on a horse at £2000 because it went to £2100. Horse was named Mill Reef.

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