Jump to content

Has the military vehicle price bubble burst ?


w896andy

Recommended Posts

Hello,

I don't know whether the collective would consider me 'young' anymore as I’m now in my mid thirties, but I don’t believe there are as many people of my age or younger that are currently active in the military vehicle hobby, compared to the number of those of older generations.

I have been looking to invest some money in WW2 vehicles rather than put it all in a pension pot. The thinking being that based on past trends the value of WW2 MVs was likely to steadily increase and I get the added bonus of actually enjoying the vehicle at the same time., selling it when I could no longer drive it or needed to release the capital.

I have been looking for a Universal Carrier for just over a year now. Thankfully there are no shortages of vehicles available, but prices are silly for what they are. I put a post on this forum in November last year and subsequently was offered 3 carriers all for roughly the same price, circa £35k -£40k.

I declined to purchase any of the carriers as I agree with those that say the market has probably peaked. My thoughts were exactly those have been expressed here - Who are the next generation of MV enthusiasts and will they be able to afford to spend in excess of £40k on a luxury toy? Hence, I questioned the validity of WW2 vehicles as financial investments. A vehicle is only worth as much as people are prepared to pay for it.

The generation of MV owner's who I am familiar with from the show scene, probably all grew up with parents or grandparents who served in WW2, or Korea, or did National Service, or maybe even did National Service themselves. They may have got into the MV hobby as a way of connecting with their families past, vehicles were plentiful and relatively financially accessible.

However, it is a different world now. I think the next generation is more distanced from family members who served in past conflicts, and so I don't believe there is the connection to the vehicles they drove that there once was. We/they haven't grown up learning to drive a Jeep around a farm yard, or discovered time capsule MVs at the backs of barns. The younger generations see vehicles at shows, but they are behind ropes and no access signs. If the a flame of interest is ignited, it will be quickly extinguished when they learn how much it costs to acquire one.

My concern is, bearing in mind the average age of first time home ownership is 39, where does the next generation of MV owner get the the expendable cash to buy a luxury toy? If interest in military vehicles decreases, it is going to be a case of supply outstripping demand and the value of vehicles are likely to decrease accordingly, with exception to the rare stuff.

I consider myself to be fairly well off financially, I have the space for vehicles, but no time to restore them. I should be the target market for the WW2 vehicle owner looking to sell his restored vehicle. But I feel they are just too expensive at the current prices.

That said, I believe the hobby itself is far from dead. There are many younger people involved in the re-enactment and living history scene and many successful events catered for them. Television series and films such as the Band of Brother’s, or latest Dunkirk movie will continue to spark interest. I am personally involved with the Garrison Living History Group based in Larkhill, which has members from a wide range of ages; from late teens through to veterans.

Will the upcoming members be able to afford to take the step into vehicle ownership? At today’s prices, I don’t personally think so. So something has to give.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

fwiw If you are say 40 years age and have always known you yourself will be responsible for your pensionable standard of living and are not in a good company pension scheme (if such schemes still exist) , interested in 'collecting' mv's as part of your portfolio , not already 'too heavy' in property owned/mortgaged. If mv ££ bubbles frighten you - then stick with a single rump show vehicle that is affordable to you , the only way forward - burry your head in "Investors Chronicle" and delay the mv's for abt. 10 years , use the well worn technique of 'pound (£) cost averaging' with spare available. To spread your risk further - I would suggest Investment Trusts - that may involve yet another specific mag. During that 10 years , study in-depth the mv's you intend to purchase - otherwise keep funds on hand to commission a competent engineers report prior to 'investment' ..

Edited by ruxy
spelin
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interestingly, there is a WW2 GPW presently listed on eBay with a below-reseve starting price set at £16k. I think this Jeep is now on its third consecutive relisting with no-one apparently willing to bid above £16.1k. The seller is clearly getting frustrated, now noting that this Jeep has a reserve below much more expensive vehicles that are not as good (presumably, he is considering asking rather than selling prices). And seller goes on to say that experts at auction houses have placed a much higher value on this Jeep than he wants. I am not sure that "value" means anything in this context, except maybe as a "come on" to have the seller spend money putting his Jeep up at a real world auction! Clearly, the present ready market value is exactly what he has established on eBay....£16.1k!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interestingly, there is a WW2 GPW presently listed on eBay with a below-reseve starting price set at £16k. I think this Jeep is now on its third consecutive relisting with no-one apparently willing to bid above £16.1k. The seller is clearly getting frustrated, now noting that this Jeep has a reserve below much more expensive vehicles that are not as good (presumably, he is considering asking rather than selling prices). And seller goes on to say that experts at auction houses have placed a much higher value on this Jeep than he wants. I am not sure that "value" means anything in this context, except maybe as a "come on" to have the seller spend money putting his Jeep up at a real world auction! Clearly, the present ready market value is exactly what he has established on eBay....£16.1k!

 

The vendor is living in the past , until abt. 1980 whan the odd goodish book was published - most prospective purchasers of a WW2 era Jeep or Hotchkiss M201 / French rebuilt Hotchpotch were blind unless well guided / educated by friend. Since the dawn of internet forums it has not been so easy for the wary to be caught out - he is much more discerning , reserve value should be on overall condition and a few other factors. Selling - if you don't ask a top $ - you don't get top $. Jeeps since 1970 IMHO - probably easier to sell well than to buy well, although I detected a slackening in the 1980's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Problem is our Mum's Mini Traveller is now a 'Collectable Classic' where as ours are large heaps of junk. Never mind! The younger generation WILL learn their mistake. Anyway, I'm just keeping mine going for the Grand kid's. Both mine have stories behind them, and I own am just the current custodian.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think if you are after a carrier, half track or armoured car then they have now become expensive enough that they are not first buys for people. But you can still buy things like Morris's, Bedford's, Scammell's etc... for a lot less money. We've got a few vehicles that have been bought over the last 6 or 7 years. Each one bought when we had the spare money to hand. If we decided that we wanted to go for a carrier or a tank we could sell all of the vehicles and get one. So the best advice I can give to anyone is buy something that will be fun and will take you to a few shows to start with. You will then make the friends and can build up the knowledge to go looking for whatever next step you want.

 

In terms of prices dropping, I think the medium expensive stuff will probably drop but the really expensive stuff will probably stay at the level it is. You only have to look at how high the prices are in the classic car and steam world are to see that high prices can be sustained.

 

Ed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This doesn't cover the price issues but I think its relevant as only one or two have touched on this aspect.

 

I personally got into the hobby through a combination of airfix, war movies and the tipping point was asking if it was ok to sit in a family friend Jeep to have my photo taken, and then hitching a ride to shows with said family friend in his Jeep.

From there the rest is history.

 

I personally let adults and children onto the WMIK and Snatch at every opportunity be that in a carpark shopping or at work or at the 40+ shows that I do each year (under supervision of myself and the accompanying adult and with a H&S notice at shows). Some shows the WMIK etc can have easily over 100+ people sit in it throughout the coarse of a day.

 

My Footman James insurance covers me for upto £25,000,000, I pay the premium so why sit there with the doors shut and roped off paying a premium on a policy that I am not getting the full use of. Whilst I sit there watching potential newcomers/lifeblood to the hobby walk past unstimulated buy the touch, smell and experience of the vehicle.

That is not to say I/you take a who cares approach, but you risk asses just like you do in every aspect of life and mitigate the risk appropriately. My cover is there as a safety net I don't intend for it to be used.

 

I also think that allowing people to experience these vehicles benefits other aspects of the hobby and society in that they see and feel what people who have served and sacrificed have had to put up with and work in.

 

I fully understand that some vehicles are to frail and unsafe to allow this type of interaction but equally if that is the case then there is nothing to stop owners from being proactive by speaking to people, firing the engine up etc and offering a ride round the arena if there's a spare seat or they see a interested party or a spark or interest waiting to be ignited.

 

 

If due to my approach 1 person shows a interest or gets into the hobby be that as a owner or helper etc then I would be happy to know I've helped this hobby.

46.jpg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

To give the younger generation a bit of heart regarding their ability to pay for expensive vehicles in the future, having got some great replies on this thread I agree with many of the comments on here that new blood is not coming into the hobby in any numbers and as has been mentioned many of the older pioneers of the hobby will be giving up in large numbers as they are all of a certain age all at the same time. It then just becomes a matter of simple statistics and supply and demand which will control future prices and is most likely already beginning to.

 

Let’s say for every 10 people in the hobby currently over 65 only 1 new person under 40 starts the hobby, it means in the next 5-10 years 10 vehicles will come on the market for every 1 new buyer, you can then multiply that figure by the number of vehicles individuals have so let’s say an average of 2 each to be conservative (I have 6 personally and I know many others have more). That means any 1 new buyer will have the choice of 20 vehicles to buy and supply and demand will then take over and dictate the price. Nothing else can happen unless there are more new people coming into the hobby than old ones leaving which doesn’t seem to be the case. The only thing that can effect that is the very wealthy but the limited numbers of those people are already buying anyway so a price drop won’t increase those numbers.

 

So I think if you are struggling to buy something, take heart, if you are looking to invest now be very careful, the time to invest was 5-10 years ago and the time to dispose if you are only investing is very quickly approaching. If you are like me and are lucky enough to have a collection bought when prices were sensible and want to keep it until I drop off the perch, enjoy your vehicles, it will be your children’s problem as to what they are worth or not.

Edited by w896andy
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm wondering if there's also an issue that the "Facebook Generation" aren't interested in mechanical things anyway. I know several twenty-somethings who treat their cars like iPads and don't understand the concepts of maintenance or servicing.

 

Andy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

My youngest son is 14 and has a model railway, loves steam engines, helps with my vehicles and likes mechanics. All his friends are in to computer games and have no interest in any of the above. apparently he is considered weird. Personally, I hope he continues to be weird, he will find the real world a lot more interesting.

 

Jon

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Why people get in to MVs at the age of 39 is due to the cycle of live being school, girls, university, girls, drink, marriage partner, then getting a first home and kids - then after 10 or more years having the savings to indulge in big boys toys, which you acquire just when the kids are old enough to ride with you in your ever so dangerous 'no safety features' MV without then falling out of the back! Hopefully you will have 'one of each' so you can have a bit of freedom with him and your wife can do something with 'her' unless you are married / living with a very rare breed of person, who shares your interest so the whole family can go along!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm wondering if there's also an issue that the "Facebook Generation" aren't interested in mechanical things anyway. I know several twenty-somethings who treat their cars like iPads and don't understand the concepts of maintenance or servicing.

 

Andy

 

You hit the nail on the head.

 

We can't get young people to become a Forklift tech, and the ones we have, if the computer does not tell them what is wrong, they do not know what to do. Out of 24 tech in the shop and on the road, I'm the only one there that has a vacuum gauge and knows hoe to use it.

 

And it it not just Military Vehicle Clubs, car clubs, and civic clubs are having a hard time getting young members. They are all dying out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can echo a lot of the comments above. We have recently been interviewing for a graduate engineer position at work. The majority have done well in the talking about they have done section. But we have been very disappointed when it comes to the practical test we give them. It is assemble one of our products using two cutaway drawings. The lack of logic and some of the things people have done has left us very concerned. We have had a couple who did very well. But the majority really struggled with what we have previously regarded as a straight forward test.

 

On the other hand I know of a number of people in their twenties in the local area who are taking an interest in military vehicles and classic vehicles. In the last year we have had a couple of Matadors, an Explorer and a Pioneer being bought by people in this age category. Some of those vehicles ranging from basket cases up to those that need recommisioning. As the facebook, google side of things takes over I think we will find more people turning to things like military vehicles as a contrast.

 

Ed

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can echo a lot of the comments above. We have recently been interviewing for a graduate engineer position at work. The majority have done well in the talking about they have done section. But we have been very disappointed when it comes to the practical test we give them. It is assemble one of our products using two cutaway drawings. The lack of logic and some of the things people have done has left us very concerned. We have had a couple who did very well. But the majority really struggled with what we have previously regarded as a straight forward test.

 

On the other hand I know of a number of people in their twenties in the local area who are taking an interest in military vehicles and classic vehicles. In the last year we have had a couple of Matadors, an Explorer and a Pioneer being bought by people in this age category. Some of those vehicles ranging from basket cases up to those that need recommisioning. As the facebook, google side of things takes over I think we will find more people turning to things like military vehicles as a contrast.

 

Ed

I Can also agree with the above thoughts as an engineer, we struggle to get qualified people.( although we have gone off topic) but times are changing and without getting too political, schools have to teach what they are told to and what seems to be the best way to point children's education for the future needs. we have to admit that basic mechanical skills don't fit that as much as they used to, its why we employ a lot of highly skilled eastern European chaps over here as their education better suits what some of us want. As for our hobby, well its up to us to take the time to do that training ourselves as our schools are not going to teach kids how to scrape a bearing in or rebuild a carburettor, when those skills are only about 0.001% of the available future jobs, oh for the old days, I thing my dad and his dad and his dad used to say that to! ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I Can also agree with the above thoughts as an engineer, we struggle to get qualified people.( although we have gone off topic) but times are changing and without getting too political, schools have to teach what they are told to and what seems to be the best way to point children's education for the future needs. we have to admit that basic mechanical skills don't fit that as much as they used to, its why we employ a lot of highly skilled eastern European chaps over here as their education better suits what some of us want. As for our hobby, well its up to us to take the time to do that training ourselves as our schools are not going to teach kids how to scrape a bearing in or rebuild a carburettor, when those skills are only about 0.001% of the available future jobs, oh for the old days, I thing my dad and his dad and his dad used to say that to! ;)

 

 

And they are correct.

 

My Dad was raised on a Share Cropper farm In the US that was legal slavery. You could not leave till you were even with the Company Store, and you never got even. I have a double barrel rabbit eared 12ga that was held on the owner while they packed up and left. He was on his on since he was 15, and got to a 8th grade education.

 

But has more common sense than a whole room full of College students. He told me one night, he had a rod knocking on a 38 Chevy straight 8. He pulled over took a flash light and dropped the pan, did not even drain it, dropped it full of oil, found which rod had slack in it. Pulled that cap, cut a piece off his belt, put it in the cap and piston, but it all back together and drove it home.

 

 

Now days, most would keep driving till it threw a rod, then call a wrecker, and HAVE a new engine in it. He always told me, "There is a big difference in a Parts changer and a Mechanic, A Mechanic can make it work."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

And they are correct.

 

My Dad was raised on a Share Cropper farm In the US that was legal slavery. You could not leave till you were even with the Company Store, and you never got even. I have a double barrel rabbit eared 12ga that was held on the owner while they packed up and left. He was on his on since he was 15, and got to a 8th grade education.

 

But has more common sense than a whole room full of College students. He told me one night, he had a rod knocking on a 38 Chevy straight 8. He pulled over took a flash light and dropped the pan, did not even drain it, dropped it full of oil, found which rod had slack in it. Pulled that cap, cut a piece off his belt, put it in the cap and piston, but it all back together and drove it home.

 

 

Now days, most would keep driving till it threw a rod, then call a wrecker, and HAVE a new engine in it. He always told me, "There is a big difference in a Parts changer and a Mechanic, A Mechanic can make it work."

Things just change too fast these days! I'm not quite middle age yet, I was brought up on a farm with no money so we had to fix things with what was at hand and crack on, I once took a head of a land rover on the side of the road, fixed the gasket with a piece of cardboard and re-filled it with water from the ditch, and that was only 20 years ago, if my 3 year old Mercedes van over heated today I'd call the AA!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First requirement for Engine Technician now is a degree in computer science. Talking to my Son, earlier on, he was complaing that to fix his Stil chainsaw you need a &^** computer to set up the carb.

 

wtf The 1302S VW Beetle had a "Diagnostic socket" in the engine bay - and that is almost 50 years ago , my mother purchased one when they were first introduced - I am certain I was driving it in 1969 , although just checking internet sources & they seem to consider introduced 1970. It was a flying machine to me & I took it on when she obtained a 1303S - that ISTR was a little lacking in comparison. IIRC VW claimed this socket was a first along with their trained franchise 'technicians' , possibly it was just a socket for a fly lead with a plug on the end to couple a Sun engine analyser ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's all irrelevant anyway.

 

There won't be a vehicle hobby in twenty years time. Enjoy it while you can as they're going to end up as static exhibits.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/25/new-diesel-petrol-cars-banned-uk-roads-2040-government-unveils/

 

Unlikely as these things don't tend to apply to historic vehicles. Can you imagine anyone cancelling the London to Brighton run? What will be more interesting is having vehicles that need a driving licence when most cars will be self-driving and therefore licence-free.

 

Andy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's all irrelevant anyway.

 

There won't be a vehicle hobby in twenty years time. Enjoy it while you can as they're going to end up as static exhibits.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07/25/new-diesel-petrol-cars-banned-uk-roads-2040-government-unveils/

 

This proposed legislation will apply to brand new vehicles not to those already on the road and , tempting though it is , I'm not going to go into one of my rants on just how polluting vehicles are - what sort of batteries are in electric vehicles ? Lead maybe ? Where does the electricity come from to charge them ? How much pollution is created building the new vehicles ?

 

Sorry.Off topic again !

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All this Zero Emisions does make me laugh! What about the power stations used to make the electricity? AH! Nasty Nuclear and gas/coal burning shut them down! Think aboiut it. I take a vehicle a disiel Discovery, now 16 years old. Beyond economic life, note Economic, nothing actually wrong with it a bit of tlc and perfectly road worthy, so I use bits from another scrap Discovery , recycling, very green. So I have saved all the material and CO2 required to manufacture a new vehicle, a lot of the CO2 that would be generated by scrapping the second vehicle. Most of what is left from the scrap vehicle was used to rebuild other vehicles, what was left went to be recycled as scrap.

 

Note from the Times Of London dated in the 1880's Pollution in our streets is a great problem. If nothing is done by 1950 it is estimated that the streets of London will be 12 feet deep in horse S*it' First hybrid buses in London 1914 Tillings Stevens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

In reality this is nothing to do with the environment, diesel particles or emissions, it is to do with the large car manufacturers and profit. They need us plebs and by that I mean anyone not in the ruling class to buy new cars to keep the wheels of industry turning and their mates making money. Where all the electricity is going to come from is anybody's guess. There has already been a warning from the electricity providers that they will not be unable to cope with the extra demand but then, when your mate builds a new electricity station and you have promised him that he can charge 4 times the current cost per KWH, the only ones that really suffer will be us.

 

Jon

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...